AA: The bag fee is no biggie

OK - this is the last AA Baggage Fee posting, we promise. But this one isn't our fault because AA is on the PR offensive and is contacting media outlets to explain "The Fee". Our headline paraphrases the situation, that this new bag fee really won't impact summer trAAvel. Per this story:

• They estimate that 25% of passengers will be affected by the $15 first bAAg fee;


• That's because (same story), 75% of summer travelers have already bought their tickets and thus won't be asked to pay the bag fee;
  
• Thus, travellers need not worry about being inconvenienced [oh, and please book on AA ASAP].

Makes perfect sense - until you start looking further:

- Back when the fee was announced, AA said that only half of their passengers check a bag. If true, then only 50% of the 25% percent (of passengers that haven't bought summer tickets yet) may pay the fee.

- Then remeber that a bunch of those pax are international and / or elite and / or bought a full price ticket - so no bag fee applies.

- Now figure that less people will be willing to check a bag because they now have to pay $15.

Now we're figuring maybe 5-10% of summer travellers on AA will pay this first bag fee? Hmmm..

At $15 a bAAg, that's still a lot of money. But AA is certainly getting a TON of bad publicity for this and they don't seem to know how to make a bad story go away. FMV's advice - just zip it already! Don't keep trying to explain it, don't keep trying to justify it, and for goodness sakes - DON'T try to tell your customers that it's actually a "bargain" !!

"The airline defended the fee, saying it was a bargain compared with the cost of shipping a 45-pound bag overnight on a package-delivery company. A spokesman for the airline said the cost of sending a bag from Dallas to New York would range from $150 to $230 or more."

FMV is also thinking of making this a paid site for our new customers for $10 a month. We figure it's a huge bargain compared to paying for online newspapers, CNN.com, espn.com and others! oh wait, those are free too....

Insurance Against Bad Reporting

We all know that a huge Ancillary Revenue stream for airlines is “Travel Insurance”. Although FMV will admit that we don’t know anyone that actually buys it – we are repeatedly told by airlines that everyone does.
A NY Times article last week explained that people who buy travel insurance tend to think that they are then less likely to lose their bags, get sick or have an accident. The psychology of buying insurance is fairly interesting, but then the NY Times had go and mess it up:

“These results presumably come as no surprise to marketers of travel insurance, which is now purchased by half of American leisure travelers — a fivefold increase since 2001, according to the United States Travel Insurance Association.”

Huh? *HALF* of leisure travelers now purchase travel insurance?? That sounds pretty unbelievable that so many travelers would add this premium to their vacation travel costs. As a result, we decided to do our own research at the US TIA website:

“Utilizing industry and government statistics we estimate that approximately half of Americans who took a cruise, tour or international leisure air trip in 2005 purchased a per trip insurance policy,” notes Brad Finkle, USTIA president.

AHHHH - That still sounds high to FMV, but a little more believable. It's not all leisure travellers, it's the subset purchasing cruises, tours, and international. It's especially logical for tours - because in some cases the cost of travel insurance is actually baked into the package price. However, FMV feels vindicated that the NY times was wrong. We maintain it's going to be a stretch to get half the hapless rubes on the redeye from Vegas to buy insurance. Unless the dealer's showing an ace, of course.

Airline Merchandising 101

If you spend any time at travel conferences, you're going to hear airlines talking about "merchandising". It is quite probably a federally mandated talking point. What does it mean?

We can enjoy Slide 18 from this PPT from United Airlines for a peak behind the curtain. UA is targeting a $1B revenue increase (roughly 5% over current ~$20B revenue) in five years from the following initiatives:

• Seat upsell, $300M/year


• Unbundling product (e.g. Baggage Fees), up to $300M/year


• New products, $400M/year

We wish we knew more about the "new products" (c'mon, pay toilets!), but we speculate that means things like entertainment, buy-on-board, new lounge purhcase plans, etc. Wait and see.

PS, FOR NERDS ONLY:

This is all interesting stuff, but the humor is found in the math error. Note that the slide indicates that seat upsell "can DOUBLE to $300M/year". That means the incremental benefit is only $150M. That means the total target only adds to $850M, not $1B. Not to mention that a $100M range was cited for "unbundling product". Oops, now we're down to $750M. Fine, fine, $250M is a rounding error when you're talking about $20+B in total. However, they may want to hire a consultant to check the other consultants' work (yes, FMV Available)

Ancillary Revenue: Not Just for Pillow Sales

All too often, when pundits talk about airline ancillary revenue, it's all about selling snacks on board or charging passengers to use the bathroom. Today, a special thanks to a yawner article about JetBlue for reminding us that ancillary revenue can come from the most basic form of nickel and diming: change fees.

Today's ATW Daily News reports that JetBlue expects a 50% year-on-year increase in ancillary revenue in 2008, bringing annual nonfare income to over $250M. For comparison, 2006 "other revenue" was $139M, and we estimate the 2007 number will be around $190M (based on JBLU 3Q07 Form 10-Q). That got us wondering exactly how they make that money.

It turns out, that for the third quarter of 2007, their filing footnotes explain that most of the other revenue increase was "primarily due to higher change fees and excess baggage fees...resulting from more passengers and increased change fee rates". Sweet! That is so old school! Hundreds of millions of dollars from simply selling nonrefundable fares, and then charging people to reclaim the purchase after their plans change.

Sports cliche: Sick to the fundamentals, Take it game by game, Give it 110%, don't get fancy.

If you actually read that article, it also turns out that JetBlue will try to boost passenger revenue by, we paraphrase, copying United's EconomyPlus seating model. But they WILL NOT, we repeat WILL NOT, emulate United's 2nd bag policy. Hip, nimble, JetBlue can't go for that legacy carrier stuff.

Overhead Bins: Prepare to be Very Full

This move has been a long time coming, so it shouldn't come as any surprise to FMV readers that approximately every media outlet in the nation is reporting that United Airlines will begin charging $25 to check a second bag on May 5.

The Chicago Tribune reports that UA expects a $100 million annual benefit from the move (combined cost savings and revenue boost). We would kill to know exactly how McKinsie computed that benefit. Consider that UA lifts about 25 million tickets per year. That would mean at least 16% of passengers would have to pay the fee, assuming no cost savings. However, it's actually got to be much higher than that, considering elites, premium cabins, gov't/military pax, international itineraries, etc. are exempt. Are there really that many hayseeds dragging two bags to the counter? We say no; hence, we conclude there has to be a big cost savings benefit anticipated.

There is also a gaping loophole in the policy, for those that enjoy gamesmanship. There is no charge to gate-check a second bag! Hence, you can go to the counter and check one bag then check the second at the gate. Certainly a nice strategy, and one that also diversifies your lost baggage risk portfolio.

We think the UA spokesperson says it best, "We will keep [the baggage fee] as long as customers want low fares". Oh, SNAP! Take a suck at that, Mr. Consumer. You brought this on yourself, with your demand for low fares without recognition for premium services.

That quote is airline-speak for "don't hate the player, hate the game".

In related news, United traffic fell 5.3% in January on a 3.4% decrease in capacity.

Free In-flight Wireless*

*Sometimes, Maybe, & Limited. Your mileage may vary. All Rights Reserved.




This is a bit outside our core discussion area, but we feel compelled to comment on JetBlue's new inflight Wi-Fi service, which apparently debuted a little while ago It seems pretty cool to offer this service, and we can understand people getting excited about it, so we're not surprised JetBlue's getting a bunch of media buzz. However, when we read the details we were left underwhelmed:

• Works on limited devices only



• Works only with Yahoo! mail



• Hardware/bandwidth won't allow for attachments to mail or full web access



• Probably only available on transcons



• No available roll-out plan

The most telling quote from JetBlue, "It's not marketable. It'll have to be more of a surprise and delight for our customers if they get it." Well, with that kind of attitude, they certainly can't charge for it. And they won't. Though they imply that someday if they can get it right they may. Which is why we're keeping an eye on this.

But in the meantime, we're just annoyed that this is portrayed as something really special when it seems to be little more than a parlor trick.

Apparently Fares Fluctuate 400%

Seems that Yapta is actively trying to promote their pre-buy shopping tools over post-buy change alerts:

"The average airline ticket price fluctuates 400%. All those tricky price changes mean people like to shop around before they purchase airfare. That’s why the latest version of Yapta includes a comparison shopping notepad, right in a sidebar window of your Internet browser. "

Seems like a good call, given trends toward less generous carrier reprice policies. And the Yapta tool in your browser seems kind of neat. However, we question whether a downloaded app model will ever prevail over pure web services such as Kayak. Are consumers comfortable with another monitor on their PC in this era of pop-up blockers and virus threats? We know that even SideStep eventually had to go to the web-site play even though they were really sucessful with the download app.

More importantly, what's up with that 400% stat? What is the source? What does it mean? That average fares start at say $150 and end as high as $750? Fares don't even really change much, do they-availability changes? So many questions for such a petty point. But if consumers take the bait - more power to Yapta.

The inevitable has happened.

US on-line travel sales now exceed off-line travel sales. PhoCusWright has released their seventh annual on-line travel overview. Per this synopsis, PCW reports that online travel sales hit 51% in 2007, and should continue to grow to 60% in 2009.


We always take this stat with a grain of salt, since it's typically computed in dollars rather than transactions. Either may be appropriate for a given argument, but it totally depends on the case you want to make. Regardless, we'll agree with the conclusion: on-line channels will continue to grow despite their setbacks and possible risks to brandloyalty.


We'll be keeping it real at the PCW executive conference next week, so we'll keep you posted on the latest buzz.

We use miles for magazine subscriptions

Another article in The Wall Street Journal to fuel passengers' frustrations with frequent flyer plans ("Mileage Plans Add to Flier Ire", 10/17/2007). There are some nice factoids in there to illustrate just how pervasive, yet useless, plans have become (e.g., Northwest Airlines has 510 partners for WorldPerks, including 41 new partners this year).

The best gem comes from American Airlines. To support their argument that reward seat availability is NOT declining, a spokesman notes that frequent flyer travellers actually increased from 2005 to 2006, from 7.2% of passengers boarded to 7.5% of passengers boarded.

That sounds impressive, but it's actually misleading. Especially if you take a look at two other facts:

1) If you look in the American Airlines' 2006 Annual Report - it tells you that the number of award redemptions was actually FLAT for the period at 2.6 million [tickets].

2) During the same period, AA's "Passenger Boarded" (segments) volume increased 0.1% (per Airline Business Magazine statistics).

All this tells you is that the Frequent Flier Passenger-Boardeed has increased - but NOT the number of actual tickets. This suggests that frequent flyer availability is tighter, and these fliers are having a tougher time booking direct fligts. But kudos to American for representing the numbers to their favor.

OK - Extra credit for Airline Numbers Nerds follows. AA's PB's in 2006 were reported to be 98.139 million. 7.5% of that means 7.360 million PB's were associated with 2.6 million reward tickets. This yields 2.83 PB's per reward ticket, which is a bit higher than a common industry assumption of 2.5 PB's / Ticket.

FMV has learned long ago that you have to go into the numbers to get the real story - Any time you need a peek behind the WSJ's numbers, you know where to find us.